Playoff Projections

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Playoff Projections

Post by LightningMan on Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:09 pm

All season long at a different forum I have been tracking the mathematical probabilities of teams making the playoffs using the facilities of Sports Club Stats. I was asked to bring my analysis of the last few days of the race here. So here I am.

The London Lightning are number 1 and in. The Summerside Storm is in and have almost cemented number 2. The Montreal Jazz are number 8 and out.

The Moncton Miracles (89.0%) won their last game against Montreal, putting them at 20-20, and leaving them now just watching and waiting to see if they're going to the dance and with whom. Last night's win by Summerside helped them, mostly because it came at the expense of another team trying to make the playoffs.

The Oshawa Power (67.2%), are 18-17. With the Windsor Express and Saint John Mill Rats playing against Oshawa for their playoff lives, the Power needs wins and they need them soon. If Summerside salts the number two slot away, the letdown may be a chance for the Power to pick up a victory in the next few days that they might not otherwise have had a shot at.

A few days ago I said the Windsor Express (59.7%) was not out of it by any stretch. They've played their way smack dab into it, by winning two games and drawing even at 18-18. I said then that 4-2 probably puts them in the playoffs, and now going 2-2 gives them those 4 wins. The loss by the Saint John Mill Rats moved the Express up into that fifth slot.

The Saint John Mill Rats (48.9%) lost that playoff clinching game for Summerside, taking them to 18-19 and reducing their chances of making the playoffs to basically a coin flip. Each game is crucial now and losing two of the remaining three is still a realistic possibility with one of those games on the road with Windsor.

The Halifax Rainmen (35.2%) are 18-18. They were helped a little by the Saint John loss, but they're still the dark horse, at least by the Sports Club Stats computations, even though Saint John has a one game worse record.

Oshawa vs. Windsor tonight is a real poison pill for the loser.

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Re: Playoff Projections

Post by LightningMan on Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:21 pm

The London Lightning are number 1 and in. The Summerside Storm is in and have almost cemented number 2. The Montreal Jazz are number 8 and out.

The Moncton Miracles (88.1%, 20-20) continue to eye that fourth or fifth slot. With the Windsor Express's rather stunning victory against the Oshawa Power, Moncton's 20 wins just may be enough to get them into the final dance.

The Windsor Express (84.5%, 19-18) have gone from out to the catbird seat with a statement win over Oshawa. With three more games to go, all at home, they have a realistic chance to get those important 20th and 21st wins and settle their playoff picture. But the first shot at win number 20 is the Lightning, with the Power and the Halifax Rainmen after that, so still not a lock by any stretch.

The Saint John Mill Rats (49.0%, 18-19) are still at that coin flip that their loss to the Express last weekend put them at. The bad news is that their upcoming games are all on the road, but the good news is that one of the games is against the Jazz, so 20 wins is still an achievable mark.

The Oshawa Power (46.8%, 18-18) needed wins, but have been accumulating losses. Their remaining games are on the road against the Storm, the Rainmen, and the Express, so 20 wins is beginning to look like long odds.

The Halifax Rainmen (31.6%, 18-18) are home for two of their last four games. However, with two games against the Storm (who still haven't clinched second place yet) and one game against the Lightning and Power, the path to 20 wins looks treacherous.

Of Friday's games, the Jazz game is an absolute must win for the Mill Rats. The Power needs to beat the Storm if they want to get back in the picture. And an Express win over London would be huge.

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Re: Playoff Projections

Post by LightningMan on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:59 pm

The London Lightning are number 1 and in. The Summerside Storm is number 2 and in. The Montreal Jazz are number 8 and out.

The Windsor Express (94.2%, 20-18) show how much they love home cooking with a win over nothing-to-play-for London, vaulting them into the 3rd position. With two more games to go, all at home, they could possibly get to 22 wins, but just one more probably seals the number 3 slot. On tap, the Oshawa Power and the Halifax Rainmen.

The Moncton Miracles (87.0%, 20-20) cling to spot 4 or 5 by virtue of those 20 wins. They are rooting for at least two teams to get that 21st loss. Tonight, the Miracles should be rooting for the Halifax Rainmen and thus against Oshawa.

The Saint John Mill Rats (58.3%, 19-19) did the one thing they needed to do, beat the Jazz. 20 wins is the score to match and they have two tries at it, against the Power and the Express.

The Oshawa Power (39.3%, 18-19) has reeled with three straight losses and have just about played their way out of a chance at the playoffs. Their remaining games are on the road against the Rainmen, and the Express and home for the Mill Rats. Two out of three is possible, but even then it may not be enough.

The Halifax Rainmen (21.2%, 18-18 ) are home for two of their last four games. Summerside clinching changes the complexion of the two games against the Storm and the game against the Lightning. Only the Power game means something to both teams, so you might not be done with Halifax yet.

Of Saturday's games, the Jazz game versus the Lightning is meaningless as far as the playoffs are concerned. The Power needs to win to get back in the picture but their opponent, the Rainmen, need this game to have any chance at all.

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Re: Playoff Projections

Post by LightningMan on Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:26 pm

The London Lightning is number 1 and in. The Summerside Storm is number 2 and in. The Montreal Jazz is number 8 and out.

The Moncton Miracles (95.9%, 20-20) keep on hanging on to slot 4/5 as the rest of the season and rest of the league plays itself out. Tuesday, the Miracles should be rooting for the London Lightning against the Halifax Rainmen.

The Windsor Express (92.9%, 20-18) lock themselves into the playoffs with one more win. They too are rooting for London Tuesday. Their remaining games are at home against the Saint John Mill Rats and the Oshawa Power.

The Saint John Mill Rats (62.8%, 19-19) are on the road against the Power and the Express for their last two games. The Lightning / Rainmen game doesn't appear to affect the Mill Rats chances either way.

The Halifax Rainmen (24.5%, 19-19) beat the Power but lost to the Storm this weekend, keeping them alive in the hunt. Ideally they need to win both games remaining to get into the playoffs, but they could make it losing one. What they cannot afford is to lose both. Problem is, the last two are against London and Summerside. However, neither have anything to play for in the regular season, so there could be a letdown and a Rainmen opening.

The Oshawa Power (24.0%, 18-20) has now had four straight losses and have tanked like a rich man's aquarium. Their remaining games are on the road against the Express and home for the Mill Rats. With 20 wins now their maximum possible, even winning both games may not be enough.

All Rainmen games are big wins for Halifax, but a London win Tuesday all but locks Moncton into the playoffs and does a tremendous amount for Windsor's chances.

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Re: Playoff Projections

Post by LightningMan on Wed Mar 13, 2013 1:45 pm

Locks

The London Lightning is number 1 and in. The Summerside Storm is number 2 and in. The Montreal Jazz is number 8 and out.

The Hunt

The Moncton Miracles (~100.0%, 20-20) have just about waited out the tempest. The only question is slot 4 or slot 5. Tonight, they'll be rooting for the Saint John Mill Rats to win, as that will put them unquestionably into the playoffs.

The Windsor Express (93.9%, 20-18) lock themselves into the playoffs with one more win. They too are rooting for the Mill Rats, which will improve their odds. Their remaining games are at home against the Mill Rats and the Oshawa Power.

The Saint John Mill Rats (62.7%, 19-19) are on the road tonight against the Oshawa Power and then later the Express. A win against the Power puts them in the playoffs. A loss lowers their chances to ~30%.

Outside Looking In

The Oshawa Power (33.1%, 18-20) is at the do-or-die point. If the Mill Rats win, the Rats are in and the Power is out. Winning only increases Oshawa's chances to 60%, but it beats the alternative.

The Halifax Rainmen (10.2%, 19-19) are just about toast. A Mill Rats win doesn't eliminate them entirely, but it makes the hill to climb into Mt. Everest. They want the Power to win. And then they want to win themselves.

The Game

This one is huge. A Mill Rats win and the playoffs are almost entirely set except for seeding. A Power win keeps them and Halifax alive and pretty much stabs Saint John in the heart. Talk about taking it down to the finish.

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Re: Playoff Projections

Post by Penguin022 on Sun May 26, 2013 10:22 am

And it looks like the playoffs are over.

Moncton made it to the #5 slot. They went against St. John and won and went up to go against the Lightning in the semi-finals. #3 Windsor Express lost to the #2 Summerside Storm by a few points in Game 5 and the Storm went into the playoffs against the other winners, London. London eventually won the series and became 2-time winners of the NBLC.
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